Example
Example 1: Basic Expected Value Calculation
An engineering firm is considering bidding on a small contract. It costs 40,000. The probability of winning is 30%. Calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the decision to bid.
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Example 2: Intermediate Decision Tree Analysis
A tech company must decide whether to develop a new software product ("Develop") or upgrade an existing one ("Upgrade"). Developing the new product costs 40,000.
If they Develop, there's a 60% chance of high market demand (Revenue: 50,000).
If they Upgrade, there's a 70% chance of high demand (Revenue: 80,000). Determine the best decision using Expected Value.
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Example 3: Advanced Expected Value with Sequential Decisions
A mining company is considering exploring a new site. An initial geological survey costs 100,000) with an 80% chance of finding ore worth $500,000 and a 20% chance of finding nothing.
If negative, they abandon the project. Calculate the overall Expected Value of conducting the survey.
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Example 4: Programmed vs. Non-Programmed Decisions
Identify whether the following scenarios represent a programmed or a non-programmed decision in an engineering firm.
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