Example

Example 1: Basic Expected Value Calculation

An engineering firm is considering bidding on a small contract. It costs 5,000topreparethebid.Iftheywin,theprofit(excludingbidcost)is5,000 to prepare the bid. If they win, the profit (excluding bid cost) is 40,000. The probability of winning is 30%. Calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the decision to bid.

Step-by-Step Solution

0 of 3 Steps Completed
1

Example

Example 2: Intermediate Decision Tree Analysis

A tech company must decide whether to develop a new software product ("Develop") or upgrade an existing one ("Upgrade"). Developing the new product costs 100,000.Upgradingcosts100,000. Upgrading costs 40,000. If they Develop, there's a 60% chance of high market demand (Revenue: 300,000)anda40300,000) and a 40% chance of low demand (Revenue: 50,000). If they Upgrade, there's a 70% chance of high demand (Revenue: 150,000)anda30150,000) and a 30% chance of low demand (Revenue: 80,000). Determine the best decision using Expected Value.

Step-by-Step Solution

0 of 5 Steps Completed
1

Example

Example 3: Advanced Expected Value with Sequential Decisions

A mining company is considering exploring a new site. An initial geological survey costs 20,000.Thereisa40Ifpositive,theycandrill(cost:20,000. There is a 40% chance the survey will be positive and a 60% chance it will be negative. If positive, they can drill (cost: 100,000) with an 80% chance of finding ore worth $500,000 and a 20% chance of finding nothing. If negative, they abandon the project. Calculate the overall Expected Value of conducting the survey.

Step-by-Step Solution

0 of 3 Steps Completed
1

Example

Example 4: Programmed vs. Non-Programmed Decisions

Identify whether the following scenarios represent a programmed or a non-programmed decision in an engineering firm.

Step-by-Step Solution

0 of 4 Steps Completed
1